Lewis Baker: Youth success, loan policies, and a career yet to properly start

“Watmore do you want, Watmore do you want!"

"Oooh that's unreal!”

The year is 2016 and the England under-21's are having an evening training session in France. While the senior team was in turmoil with Gareth Southgate having just replaced the disgraced Sam Allardyce, the group he had just left were loving life. As you would, really. Being an England U21 is a pretty sweet deal. 

You’re so good at football that you’re with the best of your age group in the country, with the exception of three or four truly elite players who skip the age group entirely. You get to represent England, but with none of the pressures of the senior team. Instead, you’re largely hanging about with your mates, visiting different countries with the coaches still telling you the emphasis is on improvement rather than results. You’ve probably played a good chunk of senior football, but even if you haven’t, you’ve definitely signed a pro contract for a lot of money. Scouts, video games and journalists alike are predicting a big future. Moreover, knowing who the new manager of the seniors is, you’re tantalisingly close to the England team.

It’s no surprise then, that on the England Youtube channel, the players who seem to be having the most fun in their training videos are the U21’s (at least until Southgate changed the culture completely). The video that the above quotes come from (‘Lewis Baker's unbelievable rabona crossbar challenge - Eng U21 Shooting Session’) is no different. It’s one of my favourite football videos on the internet, simply because the amount the players are enjoying themselves and loving being footballers is infectious. If you’ll indulge me, here is an incomplete list of some great moments in the video. 

James Ward-Prowse applauds an empty ground in France on his way to the pitch, saying “what a vibe” into the camera. Nathan Redmond literally dances his way onto the field. The keepers, including Angus Gunn, mess about with a handling drill, and get to flick the ear of the goalkeeping coach. Harry Winks tells the camera “I don’t miss” after scoring his two penalties. Tammy Abraham is delighted the cameraman has caught him doing a trick. At the end Redmond collapses after a beautiful bit of ball juggling saying with a smile to Nat Chalobah “I’m too tired bro, let’s call it a day”. The enthusiasm and hunger to get better is obvious, but one figure in particular is the hype man for everyone.

The shooting drill starts and Lewis Baker shouts out the line I wrote at the start, after Duncan Watmore unleashes a left footed volley that flies past the keeper. The second line arrives after a Ward-Prowse trivela. “Unbelievable” he says as he hugs his skipper. Of course Baker isn’t just bigging up his teammates. He hits the crossbar with a right footed rabona, and then scores two left footed penalties, joining in with the ‘awwww’ sound everyone makes when the keeper gets his hand to the second one. Jack Grealish gets a big build up from the coach for his penalty “Here he comes, the boy Grealish. Friend of the people, housewives favourite”. He misses, and therefore has to collect all of the balls; Chelsea’s Baker is the first among many to playfully celebrate his misfortune.

Now scrawling through YouTube comments in search of any insight whatsoever is probably a waste of time, but in this exact case I think it’s instructive. For a start, the positivity is almost alarming, as the comments are full of praise for the players’ relaxed and happy attitude to training, along with the bond that is clearly present among the group. But Baker commands attention. “Lewis Baker is England's most technically gifted player, he's that good with both feet”. A reply to that comment echoed my thoughts at the time, that you’re still figuring out what his strong foot is. Many pleaded with Chelsea to give him a chance. 

A lot of the players in the video went on to play for the England senior team and rack up countless appearances in the Premier League. Baker is not one of them, and given that he will be 27 next month, the smart money is on him not even coming close to reaching the potential that he was seen to have had. His superb technique, powerful ball striking with either foot, and a cultured style had earned him rave reviews long before he made his debut for Chelsea at 18 as a late sub for Oscar in an FA Cup tie at Derby. So what went wrong?

It’s too simplistic a question to ask if you’re trying to work out why a star of youth football didn’t quite make it to the top. Firstly, the under 21's are quite a curious beast in general. They might have plenty of enjoyment as outlined above, but I think for the top players it can be a bit of a waste of time. An example of this was the 2015 euros when Harry Kane, fresh off his first 20 goal season in the league, was playing in a team whose first choice midfield was Chalobah and Jake Forster-Caskey, who were playing for clubs - Reading and Brighton respectively - who had finished in the bottom half of the Championship that season. I can’t imagine Kane got much out of the experience when his team didn’t get out of the group and explains why the prodigies can skip this step entirely.

Baker was often impressive for the England youth sides

Of course player development isn't linear and someone like James Milner, proud owner of a record 46 U21 caps, would be the counter argument. All those games for the premier youth team definitely played their part in his long career at the top level. But in general I think it’s fair to say that Baker’s impressive record for the side (8 goals from midfield in 17 appearances) was not a guarantee he would turn into a Chelsea player. Go through any England U21 tournament squad and you get a real mix in terms of what level their career ended up at. 

Baker’s finest moment in an England shirt came at the 2016 Toulon Tournament which England won. He scored the first goal in the final vs France, clinching the golden boot. To continue the point about youth internationals being only so valuable for predicting the future, it might be relevant to point out not a single player of the France squad has made their senior debut at the time of writing. 

The 2017 U21 Euros was to be Baker’s final tournament at age group level and a strong England side was expected to do well. Off the back of an individually successful season with Vitesse the midfielder was in the regular England starting XI. Although he didn’t pull up any trees in the group stages, in the semi final 2-2 draw with Germany he played all 120 minutes and scored his penalty in the shootout which England went onto lose. He had put in a fine performance for the biggest game, but had just fallen short. Disappointing, but satisfactory overall. It definitely didn't look like the performance of someone who would struggle to get into a championship team the season after. 

So what of his domestic career? At club level, Baker progressed quickly through the Chelsea ranks and even by the standard of players they were churning out on a regular basis at Cobham, he stood out. As early as 2012, at just 16, he scored in the final against Blackburn to help win the FA youth cup. A year later, as Chelsea narrowly lost to Norwich in the same competition, he was captain of a side that featured Andreas Christensen and Ruben Loftus-Cheek. As he grew, he was adding muscle to his technical style, allowing for numerous runs into the box to complement his on the ball quality that was rare for an English player. A year further on in July 2014, no less as harsh a critic of young players as Jose Mourinho was enamoured enough by his talent to say this:

“My conscience tells me that if, for example, [Lewis] Baker, [Izzy] Brown, and [Dominic] Solanke are not national team players in a few years, I should blame myself…They are part of a process the club started without me. In this moment, we have players who will be Chelsea players. And when they become Chelsea players, they will become England players, almost for sure.”

“This group of players – Baker, Brown, Solanke and [Jeremie] Boga – these four are not all going to be in my squad, because I cannot have 30 in my squad, but these four are going to work with us all season and these four are going to be Chelsea players.”

Mourinho wouldn’t have said this about Baker - or the others -if his talent wasn’t obvious. The Portuguese gaffer was a year and a half into his 2nd tenure at the club before he allowed Baker to go on loan to get some mens football under his belt. That was a January loan to Sheffield Wednesday, until the end of the 2014-15 season. The next time he returned to Chelsea to spend any serious length of time was in the 2021-22 season.

Not the career summary Baker was expecting when he was younger

Here we arrive at the crux of the issue with Baker, and Chelsea in general. He is primarily seen as one of many players swallowed up by the Chelsea loan machine. Indeed, he has been on no less than eight (yes, EIGHT) loans from his boyhood club. Maybe it was just bad timing - he straddled the very end of Chelsea’s refusal to use their extensive youth team graduates. Abraham, for instance, was a crucial two years younger; Mason Mount and Reece James younger still, benefiting to the full extent of both the 2019 transfer ban and the appointment of Frank Lampard. Conversely, Baker himself was part of the generation that was promised more opportunities in the wake of the lack of a breakthrough for players older than him, such as the highly rated Josh McEachran.

Two names Mourinho named checked in the aforementioned quote were Izzy Brown And Dominic Solanke. They in different ways point to structural issues at Chelsea at the time that hampered youth stars. Brown had a similar experience to Baker, finally leaving Stamford Bridge for Preston in 2021 after seven loans of dubious quality, including 13 Premier League games for Brighton. Solanke was an even bigger talent than Baker, breaking scoring records in the youth teams and being a star in various England age group sides. Mourinho doesn’t have to ‘blame himself’ as Solanke does own 1 cap, but that came after he left Chelsea. He ran his contract down after complaining that he would never get a chance, and who could blame him?

But striker Solanke can barely be compared to Baker - for a start he is two and a half years younger. He also was considered good enough to get on the pitch 27 times for Klopp’s Liverpool in the 2017-18 season although they almost exclusively were cameos, causing frustration. A £19m move to Bournemouth has, after a difficult start, proven to be a smart move. He is currently one of the deadliest strikers in the championship, and will probably have another crack at the top flight next year. 

It’s easy to blame Chelsea. But while he was out on loan, was Baker demanding through performances to be given a chance, in the way Mount, Fikayo Tomori, James and Abraham did at Derby, Wigan and Aston Villa respectively? 

That Sheffield Wednesday loan was terminated early, Chelsea thinking a drop to League one and Mk Dons would be more suitable. The midfielder impressed, helping the franchise get promoted, with Karl Robinson full of praise. The next loan was to Chelsea’s feeder club, Vitesse, along with Brown and Solanke. It was a solid, if unspectacular season, as the club finished 9th in the Eredivisie. Baker played in 31 of the 34 league games, scoring 5 goals. 

He stayed at Vitesse for a further year, and 16-17 - the season in which the Youtube video falls - Baker really showed his quality. He seemed happy in Holland and Vitesse had a brilliant year, finishing 5th and winning the Dutch Cup, the clubs first major honour in their history, and the loanee was a massive part of it. He played in central midfield yet ended up with 15 goals in 39 games in all competitions, in no small part thanks to his brilliant dead ball skills. His free kicks, corners and penalties were a reliable source of goals and assists for Vitesse through his two years there, and now seemed primed and ready for a step in quality from the Dutch league.

We’ll never know if this was 2019 instead of 2017 if Baker would’ve been given a chance at Chelsea off the back of this loan. But Antonio Conte, frustrated at not getting his main transfer targets, was probably not the perfect manager for Baker, who at this point was already 22. Danny Drinkwater signing for £30m was evidence enough for how Chelsea saw Baker’s medium term prospects. If we take a step back here, one great season for Ajax or PSV does not make you good enough for Chelsea, let alone one for Vitesse. At his age to build on the momentum he’d gained in Holland, as hard as it would be emotionally, Baker probably needed to make the brave decision and leave the club he loved for his career. 

Baker's time at Vitesse showed off his ability to score from midfield

Instead he signed a new five year deal at Stamford Bridge. 

I get why. It’s hard to let go of a dream, moreover one that so many people would’ve told you you were good enough to fight for. Additionally, the wages a contract with Chelsea would bring would almost certainly be a lot more he could pick up elsewhere. That’s what kept Lucas Piazon and Marco van Ginkel signing extensions half a decade after the penny dropped they would never have any chance at the Blues (Some would say players like Piazon have wasted their whole career. But would you give up those wages?).

But this was in 2017. There was already plenty of cynicism around Chelsea's army of loan players. It was yet another year they won the FA Youth Cup but the chances of this newer batch of youngsters making it to the first team seemed as slim as ever. In this very summer Loftus-Cheek - who had accelerated past Baker years ago - demanded a move to Palace after playing only a token part in the title win. Baker’s age mates Chalobah and Nathan Ake, long seen as future first teamers, finally got fed up and left permanently, for Watford and Bournemouth respectively. Did Baker not look around and want to do the same? Possibly the 2017 U21 Euros had an impact in his decision, where he had retained the faith of the England hierarchy, suggesting a career at the very top was still in his sights.

At the very least he seemed to have picked a good loan. He found himself spending 17-18 at Middlesbrough, just relegated from the Premier League and looking for a swift return. It was similar to the loans that Mount, Tomori and Abraham were to go on 12 months later, an ambitious championship club who would give you the platform to show yourself as one of the best players in the division, to prove to your parent club you were at the very least a top flight player. Those three smashed it and Chelsea could no longer ignore them. Baker, er, didn’t. 

Despite never being injured (according to Transfermarkt) he only played 14 games in all competitions. Tony Pulis, who replaced Garry Monk midway through the season, simply didn’t trust him. Many would point to Pulis’ infamous brushing aside of Arsenal loanee Serge Gnabry as evidence that he would inevitably not be great for Baker. But while this was clearly an error, his West Brom side were doing well at the time and so Gnabry had a job getting into a solid Premier League XI. On the other hand Baker was competing with championship players, and in any case, his running power and set piece prowess would seem to suit a Pulis side down to the ground. It was becoming clear by now that the player that Mourinho had talked about in such grand terms, that Chelsea and England had such high hopes for, was miles apart from the player he actually was. Sitting on the bench all year was a ridiculous situation for a young player who needed to build on his goal laden 16-17. At the time many thought it was Pulis who had it wrong. The next few years of Baker’s stuttering career said otherwise. 

The ‘Boro disaster put his stock at an all time low, but there was no hope of a fresh start. The contract he had signed signalled to the world Chelsea’s intention: loan him out, hope he does well, then sell him for a half decent fee. The next team to try and unlock his ability was Leeds, however the kudos of being Marcelo Bielsa’s first signing didn’t reinvigorate him. He spent his time on the bench, only starting twice in the league as Leeds, going for promotion, had quickly deduced he wasn’t at the required level. They sent him back in January and he was on his way to Reading, who were at the other end of the table. There at least, he was good enough to be a key player, playing every single minute of the last 14 league games of the season, showing he was fit enough to deal with the Saturday-Tuesday grind of the second tier, if nothing else.

Googling Baker in 2014-2016 would land you on umpteen ‘Top 15 young players to watch this decade’ listicles. By now, it was more of a ‘whatever happened to Lewis Baker?’ 19/20 came and went with just 8 Bundesliga appearances for Fortuna Dusseldorf, and the midfielders’ nomadic existence was complete when he got a frankly overdue offer to play in Turkey with Trabzonspor. You wondered what the point was for any of the parties involved, but there he linked up with his old youth coach Eddie Newton, and knuckled down to play 34 league games, remaining a key option even after his old mentor was sacked. He even rolled back the years a tad when he scored a couple of trademark free kicks as he and the club ended the season strong. 

It was by a mile his best season since he left Holland. But it still wasn’t amazing. Trabzonspor, interestingly, are this season cruising to the title with the Istanbul big three miles behind, suggesting the side that Baker regularly got into was not full of bad players. But they fact they were not that interested in getting him permanently told the story, and he was one of 33 players to come back to Chelsea in June 2021. His name stood out like a sore thumb. The time when he was considered full of potential, like Conor Gallagher, Marc Guehi or Tomori had long gone. Neither was he an experienced European campaigner like Davide Zappacosta, Ross Barkley, Victor Moses or Michy Batshuayi. The real story for many was shock that he was still technically a Chelsea player. 

And so we arrive at the current campaign, back in Chelsea’s youth teams, scoring goals in U23 matches at the age of 26, taking unfulfilled talent to extremes. There was a sweet moment when the lad who first joined the club when he was nine got on the pitch to represent Chelsea for a second time, in a 5-1 romp against Chesterfield on January 8th. In the 59th minute, he replaced his old pal Christensen, to cheers from the faithful. Finally, after that, he left to join Stoke, permanently.  I cannot for the life of me figure out why he didn’t make the move in the summer, but there are signs he’s keen to make up for lost time.

It’s been impressive so far, admittedly for a team who don’t have a lot to play for this season. He has scored 6 goals in 11 games for Stoke already, which is more goals than he got for all his clubs in the last four seasons. He looks energised, showing the stamina to score a stunning equaliser in the 95th minute against Barnsley on the 8th March, only a few days before this incredibly long essay was written.

"For myself it's been a breath of fresh air coming here, I'm really enjoying myself."

The hope is he can knuckle down, use the ability that is still there, and carve out a decent career. A parallel with Baker is Ravel Morrison, another youth star, who has a similar crazy stat related to lost years; he recently scored his first goals in England for eight years. That stat, though, is full of asterisks of Morrison’s own making. There’s never been any worry about Baker’s professionalism or attitude, which speaks to a clearer truth - he simply wasn’t anywhere near as good as his initial success suggested. In any case, The cream does always rise to the top. If he was THAT good, surely he'd have made it.

 

So what went wrong? Well, predicting the potential of players is always a bit of a lottery, but fans, and in turn the media, never really learn. Ralf Rangnick had to field a question on whether England had ‘missed out’ on young Manchester United player Zidane Iqbal opting for Iraq at international level, despite the fact he has literally seconds of senior football under his belt. 

Thinking on an abstract level, it could be argued the Vitesse experience, as much as he enjoyed it, wasn’t conducive for his development. The lower standard of football, and the safety net of being surrounded by fellow Chelsea kids might’ve meant questions weren’t asked on and off the pitch that a move abroad should bring. The players who actually made it into the first team (James, Tomori, Abraham, Loftus-Cheek, Mount) suggest English loans are far better at improving your game - Abraham had three. Only Mount went to Vitesse and went on to play a significant number of games for Chelsea. Perhaps that was unique to him. Not only was he super talented, but he wasn’t physically developed then, and therefore was better placed to take more from his time in Holland in terms of technique. The 2015 Lewis Baker however, fresh from his MK Dons cameo, was ready for the physically intense championship season.

You can see Chelsea’s logic in the project though. You’re less likely to get kicked in the Dutch league with its relative lack of veterans. There’s also the idea that the Dutch way teaches something tactical to young players that other systems don’t, I assumed it would help your footballing education, but maybe if you’re there for a year or two it is doubtful it has an impact. Thinking practically, going abroad broadens horizons and players who aren’t going to make it at Champions League level could have a better chance of making a career in Europe that way as an alternative to spending their time in the English lower leagues. It worked for Vitesse as well, Baker and Mount were excellent for them, although both clubs have now quietly pretty much binned the project. 

In the end, Chelsea have now figured out that the Baker model is not the way to treat a young player, and instead are far more willing to ship them out - with a generous buy back clause. As mentioned, he was too old for the Lampard era complete with a transfer ban. But did he suffer from the loan policy, or was he complicit? Yours truly was saying in November 2018 that he should’ve left permanently two years before that. Where was the personal responsibility and realisation that it wasn’t going to happen? Michael Keane left Manchester United in 2014 when the club wanted him to stay, and within a few years he was in the England squad. That categorically would not have happened at United.

In this era of player power, younger players have to show conviction and be willing to leave their safety net. Callum Hudson-Odoi was a Chelsea youngster who was much more assertive, openly flirting with Bayern to ensure game time. While Baker did not have that level of bargaining power, there must’ve been numerous clubs who would’ve been willing to sign him in a way that Tariq Lamptey and Toni Livramento have left Chelsea as teenagers, believing that their quality will eventually bring them back up. Intriguingly for someone who seemed so confident, Baker may have lacked the self-belief to thrive outside the Chelsea bubble. 

It’s time to end this mammoth piece of writing, I’ll always keep an eye out for him and i’m interested in following his progress at Stoke. 27 in April, the predictions of a lengthy Chelsea and England fell way short, but there’s no reason why he can’t be one of the best players in the championship next year. The player that caught my eye all those years ago may have diminished, but the start at Stoke is thrilling. The young two-footed midfielder with a technique to die for and a penchant for wonder goals won’t be England captain. But he can still thrill fans at a lower level for years to come - after all the young man in that YouTube video loved showing off what he could do with a smile. The shadow of Chelsea is gone, and football always offers one more chance.